The Arab uprising, which started in Tunisia and spread across northern Africa and the Middle East, has so far caused the collapse of four dictatorships.

In Tunisia, the uprising was relatively peaceful and generated hope. Tunisia's was the gold standard of this spring's revolutions. There was little bloodshed and the country is now firmly on the road to democracy. A fair and free election was held and government bodies are being formed.

After Tunisia came the revolution in Egypt. Hosni Mubarak's regime collapsed within eighteen days and a military council led by Marshall Mohammad Husain Tantawi was formed. This council is conceived of as an interim body that will smooth the nation's transition from dictatorship to democracy.

Despite holding elections, Egypt faces major challenges ahead. Let's not forget that democracy is being advanced by the army. It is very important for the world to see that armies are able to handle such a situation and should really be praised.

In Jordan, the monarchy has survived but the people have gained some of freedoms they desired. Protesters sought not bloodshed but the recognition of the people's demands in a peaceful manner. The leaders of the country have responded positively to these demands, and King Abdullah is the first Arab leader to say Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, should step down.

In the Yemen uprising, blood was shed.

The situation in Libya was worse, and there was widespread fighting and bloodshed. There, the UN Security Council got involved. After Nato intervened on the side of the rebels, Muammar Gaddafi's regime collapsed. Estimates suggest that more than 30,000 people died during nine months of fighting in Libya.

Colonel Gaddafi was captured alive but then swiftly killed in an inhumane manner that raised many questions about the revolution in Libya. The revolutionaries should not, of course, have behaved like the people in their custody had done. The country will face many challenges as the spring morphs into a bloody autumn and winter.

The situation in Syria differs from those in other Arab states.

There are three solutions for Syria.

The first is elections without the intervention of other countries as the regime claims it can do. The regime did do what it promised, up to a point, by holding council and municipal elections. The current government wants to bring amendments to the constitution, and supports the formation of political parties and a free media of which there are currently none.

A UN report outlined various human rights violations and the report's author wanted Syria to be referred to the International Criminal Court.

The current situation in Syria shows that the first solution is not working. It is estimated that more than 5,000 people have died during the unrest and thousands more have been detained or are missing. The number of casualties grows each day.

The Syrian government has rejected requests from the Arab League to let regional and international human rights monitors enter the country.
The second formula is a regional solution, as was implemented in Yemen. A regional solution prompted Presient Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down after 33 years in power. The revolution there was bloody and violent, but regional intervention worked.

The third formula is the one used in Libya and includes the military intervention of the international community. The UN Security Council has shown itself able to find a formula to act against Arab nations with the approval of the Arab League.

In the case of Libya we saw that after approval of Arab League, international forces stepped in after the UN approved Resolution 1973 to protect the civilian population.

Unfortunately, the Syrian government has ignored the demands of the Arab League to withdraw the armed forces from its towns and stop the bloodshed. The government has also refused to release political prisoners and negotiate with protestors.

As well as sanctions on the oil trade imposed by the Security Council, the Arab League has frozen the bank accounts of Syrian officials and imposed other sanctions on the country including a block on flights to Arabic countries and limiting trade.

The Arab League has also included some high-ranking Syrian government official in the sanctions. Being against the Arab League may prove very dangerous for Syria because it may pave the way to action by the UN Security Council.

Considering all three solutions to the Syrian conflict, an Arabic and Islamic solution is better than other solutions because the Syrian government will not countenance any alternative. An international solution will be as violent as the one witnessed in Libya.

So, the Arabic formula which that s approved by the Organisation of the Islamic Conference would be the best solution to the Syrian conflict.

The Yemeni solution would be better than Libyan solution. Being against a regional solution would make the situation worse for Syria because it will then fall to the UN Security Council to decide what to do. Russia still supports Syria in the Security Council for now.

But, ultimately, Gaddafi was by himself at the end, and Syria's Assad may do well to consider the fate that befell him in Sirte.

Blogs & Opinion - Opinion

Monday fifth of December marked the 10th anniversary of the first International Conference on Afghanistan, held in Bonn under the auspices of the UN to chart out a post-Taliban governing system for Afghanistan. Four leading Afghan groups, as well as Afghanistan's neighbours and the US and some of its European allies, participated.

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Despite continuing pressure from the United States, Pakistan is unlikely to act against the Haqqani network at least for the time being, bestselling author and journalist Ahmed Rashid told TOLOnews in an exclusive interview.

TOLOnews: How serious is the tension between Pakistan and the United States at the moment?

Ahmad Rashid: I think it's very serious. I think the real danger is that the US will take some unilateral military action such as stepping up drone attacks or possibly bombing and that could lead to you know both countries are going to war with each other literally. I mean this is very strange considering that Pakistan was supposed to be an ally of the United States in combating terrorism over the last ten years and the situation has now deteriorated to the point where they are literally in conflict to one another.

TOLOnews: Do you think the US would take the option of carrying out ground operation on Pakistani soil?

Ahmad Rashid: No, I don't think it will do ground operations. I am hoping of course that talks will begin between the two sides at a high level and the issue will be defused, but there is no question that the main sticky point which is that the US is demanding that Pakistan take action against the Haqqani Network, Pakistan is unlikely to do anything about that at least for the time being.

TOLOnews: Why do you think that is the case?

Ahmad Rashid: Well, I think you know because the Haqqani have been very close the Pakistani military and intelligence services for many many years and they have done great services for them and Pakistan is not going to suddenly dump them and change the policy and secondly there is a domestic factor here that politicians and etc have been rallying around, the military who has been taking this hardline with Americans, I don't think the military or the government can suddenly change track and go after Haqqani. I think there will a lot of public unrest in the country if they did.

TOLOnews: What if there is a choice between the Haqqani and Americans for Pakistan?

Ahmad Rashid: Well, I don't think it's in America's interest either to create such a situation either or such a crisis situation. Maybe,
there could be stepped up actions by Pakistan, greater pressure to restrain Haqqani wherever they are and prevent them carrying out attacks in Afghanistan. Some kinds of halfway measures, for the time being satisfy the US and restore the relationship. Don't forget that that still 50 or 60 percent of the goods for the US military comes through Pakistan. There are lilt to what the US can do to pressure Pakistan because Pakistan of course can stop those supplies and it will be a real crisis.

TOLOnews: What would be the consequences of the US-Pakistan tensions in Afghanistan?

Ahmad Rashid: Well, I think you know for Afghans it will be very serious because it will distance Pakistan even more from Afghanistan and the fears and suspicions that many Afghans have regarding Pakistan and its intelligence services, its support for the Taliban and Haqqani's - all these suspicions will grow even more and there will be more distrust. I think the hope that President Karzai had of leaning towards Pakistan to help him talk to the Taliban and bring about the negotiated end to the war, I think that has probably been put on hold right now with death of Professor Rabbani. There is I think a very serious crisis between Pakistan and Afghanistan and could get worse if Americans take military actions against Pakistan.

TOLOnews: Why is there a serious interest for Haqqani in the US compared to the mainstream Taliban?

Ahmad Rashid: Well, I think there is no doubt that the Haqqanis have proved their ability essentially to conduct other than guerilla warfare. That is the capacity groups such as Quetta Shura and even Gulbuddin Hekmatyar do not necessarily have. He is backed by a lot of the Pakistani militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, he has got training facilities, he has got educated young people, not just tribesmen. I think the particular ability of the Haqqani is this urban terrorism.

Blogs & Opinion - Opinion

Good morning, everybody.

The committee receives testimony on the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and in Iraq. This morning's hearing is Secretary Panetta's first appearance before this committee as secretary of defense and we welcome you, Mr. Secretary.

It's also likely to be Admiral Mullen's last appearance before he retires at the end of this month. Since the Admiral's appointment by President Bush as the 17th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 2007, and his reappointment by President Obama in 2009, Admiral Mullen has led our armed forces through one of the most complex periods of security challenges in recent history.

Among the challenges occurring on Admiral Mullen's watch have been the following. A drawdown of forces in Iraq; a shift to a counterinsurgency strategy in the surge of U.S. troops in Afghanistan; the reduction of U.S. troops in Afghanistan; support of the
NATO operations in Libya; management of a volatile relationship with Pakistan's military; and counterterrorism operations against Al Qaida and other transnational terrorist groups, including the extraordinary raid by our Special Operations Forces this past May that killed bin Laden in Pakistan.

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This opinion is brought to your attention with no ulterior motives in mind.

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TOLOnews: Officials in Kandahar hospital said that two people were killed and 10 others were wounded in the blast.
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TOLOnews: Afghan local officials said that a blast occurred Chowk-e- Shahidan are in Southern Kandahar city. But declined to provide further details.

 

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