A new report issued this week by The International Crisis Group has found that two and a half years after it was created the future of the National Unity Government (NUG) is shaky, as is broader political stability.
The report warned over the continuing disputes between President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah and said that to avoid the collapse of the U.S-brokered NUG, both Ghani and Abdullah must end political partisanship and work together.
“The NUG is beset with internal disagreements and discord and facing a resurgent insurgency. Several options are being discussed in Afghan and international circles for how best to tackle the political and constitutional tensions that, if left unresolved, would increase the risk of internal conflict and insecurity in an already fragile state,” the report stated adding that the “only promising way forward is for the two protagonists, Ghani and his CEO, Abdullah, to acknowledge that the stability of their government and country requires them to work together.”
It said Ghani and Abdullah’s discord stems from the vagueness of the U.S-devised power-sharing agreement that frames the government and the widely diverging interpretations of their powers and authority.
While Abdullah believes the agreement gave him an equal share in government; Ghani and his advisers insist that ultimate power, as defined in the constitution, resides in the presidency.
The report also said that even where the agreement is being implemented, notably on appointments to senior civil and military posts, both sides are stacking the government and security agencies with allies, mainly on ethnic grounds, with Ghani favoring fellow Pashtuns and Abdullah favoring fellow Tajiks.
The resulting perception of discrimination within excluded communities, particularly Hazaras and Uzbeks, exacerbated by the lack of consultation, including on development programs, is contributing to a widening ethnic and regional divide, the report stated.
It said that the political partisanship has permeated every level of the security apparatus, undermining the command structures of the security forces and their capacity to counter a growing insurgency.
While the Afghan National Army (ANA) has thus far prevented the Taliban from capturing and holding any major center, it is thinly stretched and suffering high casualties.
Though the Afghan National Police (ANP) is in urgent need of reform, the NUG’s leadership has yet to tackle the corruption, nepotism and factionalism within it, the report stated.
These weaknesses have played a major role in allowing Taliban advances countrywide, including in Uruzgan’s capital, Tirin Kot, it said.
Despite insecurity and political tensions, some progress has been made in stabilizing the economy: fiscal reforms and tighter control over tax collection have increased domestic revenues. Yet, sustainable growth requires improved security, political stability and progress in countering corruption, reported The Crisis Group.
Efforts to reduce corruption are strongly resisted by resilient networks within and outside government.
The report stated that without vital reforms, particularly of the electoral system and institutions, the future polls will likely be as controversial as the 2014 presidential contest.
As parliamentary and district council elections have repeatedly been postponed due to security and political instability concerns, a constitutional Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly) cannot be held to formalize the CEO’s position, as pledged in the NUG agreement.
The report suggested that to end the political impasse by the NUG’s opposition, spearheaded by former President Hamid Karzai and his allies, including early elections or a traditional Loya Jirga to determine a future governing arrangement, are unlikely to find favor with either the president or CEO.
Ghani mistrusts Karzai, while Abdullah is unwilling to risk losing his CEO position; neither wants to cut the NUG’s five-year tenure short.
Yet, as their differences mount, with Abdullah facing challengers from his own power base in the Jamiat-i Islami and Ghani negotiating with Abdullah’s rivals, particularly Balkh Governor Atta Mohammad Noor, the NUG’s future is increasingly in doubt.
Even if Noor and other Jamiat leaders were to join Ghani’s government, the result could be more disgruntlement and internal discord since the president is unlikely to accept their power-sharing demands.
Regarding to the international assistance, the report said that the fiscal and military, is important for forestalling insurgent advances, but the country’s stability ultimately depends on Ghani and Abdullah resolving their differences and working together to meet the many security, economic and humanitarian challenges that confront the country and threaten their government roles and political survival.
According to the report, Ghani and Abdullah’s relations with parliament are as strained as their mutual ties. The February 2016 Democracy International survey of 215 members of parliament (MPs) found that 59 and 70 per cent were “dissatisfied” or “somewhat dissatisfied” with both leaders respectively.
Several factors are responsible, some dating back to the presidential election in which MP support for the candidates was almost evenly divided. Abdullah’s backing has since declined among MPs affiliated with the Jamiat-i Islami, the most powerful party and his main power base, as well as with ethnic Hazara MPs who supported him during the campaign.
Many accuse him of failing to represent their interests by standing up to a president they perceive is empowering fellow Pashtun officials.