A former US diplomat and an expert on Afghanistan and South Asia affairs, Barnett Rubin, says the US President Donald Trump’s South Asia strategy has certain weaknesses as he believes that it has not taken into account key regional stakeholders in the Afghan peace and that it has focused on a military option to end the crisis in the country.
“I am not that interested in talking about how it (the strategy) failed, let’s say there were certain weaknesses in it which I hope will be corrected. It took into account only the role of Pakistan and India in Afghanistan and did not take into account the role of Iran and Russia and especially China which is extremely important,” Rubin said.
Rubin, who attended the seventh Herat Security Dialogue in Herat City, told TOLOnews that relying on a military option is another gap in this strategy.
“It relied too much on the idea that the military will help the government regain control of the country and population that has not worked, but now I think they have realized that they are moving on to a different part of strategy which is to seek a negotiated settlement,” he added.
He said he believes that Washington cannot bring peace to Afghanistan in the absence of Tehran, Moscow and Beijing.
“I am afraid if the US tries to bring peace or something like peace to Afghanistan without involving Iran and Russia and China, then it will not succeed, because any of those countries especially Iran and Russia have the capacity to make sure that anything that is against their interest fails,” Rubin said.
Meanwhile, Bushra Gohar, a former Pakistani senator, said the peace talks should be carried out with Taliban supporters not with Taliban themselves as she said the group is not independent.
“We have to see what their sponsors want. Who is supporting them? Taliban for me, is not an indecent body. So unless we talk to those sponsors, and bring them to the table, change the policies that I find…these are demolition squads that are being used and we are trying to say that they have stakes in peace,” Gohar said as he addressed the conference in Herat.
Some analysts meanwhile talked about reasons behind the absence of Taliban at the peace talks tables.
“The view of the Taliban has not changed from the beginning and will not change. What will change is complicated formulas in regional and international levels,” said Shahgul Rezaee, an MP.
“The main cause behind the failure of peace programs was that the Taliban’s main demands were not taken into account. What are the Taliban’s main demands? Two big demands: first, the full withdrawal of foriegn forces based on a proper schedule, and second, the establishment of an Islamic system which will represent all Afghans,” said Nazar Mohammad Motmaen, a political affairs analyst.
The security dialogue is held in Herat every year.
According to the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS), the conference will discuss the following topics:
• Afghan Conflict: The Nexus of Internal and External Drivers.
• Political System: Presidential VS Semi-presidential VS Parliamentary.
• Afghanistan’s Economy: From Rentier State to Developing Economy.
• Afghanistan & The Grand Bargain of South Asia.
• The Taliban: What Do They Want?
• Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy Status: Neutral, Connector or Divisive?
• The Way Forward: Do we need a Second Bonn Conference/Process?